Poland enters 2026 with a rare combination of solid growth, large-scale capex programs, and still-attractive entry multiples versus Western Europe. For corporate acquirers and private equity, the opportunity is real, but so are execution risks, especially around target scale, demographics, and a fast-rising public debt trajectory.
Below, we outline what we believe matters most for M&A decision-makers in 2026.
Strong Economic Growth
In 2026, Poland’s GDP is expected to grow by 3.5%, which is the highest among EU economies. This robust economic growth is driven by strong domestic consumption, increased government spending, and inflows from EU structural funds. Compared to many European economies, Poland’s momentum remains impressive and is projected to continue: forecasts indicate further expansion of around 3.0% in 2027 and 2.7% in 2028.
The country also benefits from a relatively small public debt of only around 58% of GDP (well below the EU average), giving the government ample fiscal space for investment.
Inflation, after the major shock in 2021-2022, has stabilized at around 3.4% in 2025, returning to single digits. At the same time, the central bank pivoted to monetary easing in late 2023, beginning to lower interest rates as inflation subsided and economic activity normalized.
Poland’s labor market remains very tight, with unemployment at only about 3%, one of the lowest rates in the EU.
Taken together, these fundamentals position Poland as one of the most dynamic and resilient economies in the EU, combining above-average economic growth with macroeconomic stability and strong structural momentum.
Valuation Multiples and Availability of Targets
Poland has a vibrant domestic private equity market supported by European institutions, but in general there are few mega-deals involving global PE funds.
Certain industries remain highly fragmented, especially in the mid-market segment. While large portions of retail and consumer goods have seen consolidation over the past decade, many sectors – distribution, business services, niche manufacturing – are still unconsolidated, presenting major opportunities for roll-up strategies by buyers.
We observe growing interest from Western European and UK-based funds in Polish targets, as slower growth and stretched valuations at home pushes them to seek deals in faster-growing markets. However, foreign investors must often adjust their criteria to smaller deal sizes in Poland and recognize that revenue per employee in some service industries is lower than in Western Europe (reflecting Poland’s lower labor cost base).
In practice, this means a foreign acquirer may need to combine multiple smaller acquisitions to achieve scale, and be prepared for lower revenue per FTE. Polish companies can be very efficient, but salaries (and thus productivity measured in revenue) still lag Western European counterparts. The upside is that valuation multiples for mid-sized Polish firms can be attractive, and strategic investors who are willing to engage in a series of bolt-on acquisitions can build significant value.
Major Infrastructure Investments and Projects
One of the big drivers of Poland’s GDP growth in coming years is major infrastructure investment, often backed by EU funds or government programs.
A flagship example is the Centralny Port Komunikacyjny (CPK), a €30+ billion project to build a new international airport and an integrated network of high-speed rail and roads by 2032. This significant investment is expected to upgrade national logistics and connectivity, benefitting sectors from construction to aviation.
On the energy front, Poland has launched construction of its first nuclear power plant, with an overall budget exceeding PLN 150 billion (around $37 billion). A U.S. consortium of Westinghouse and Bechtel has signed on to build three large reactors, and engineering work is already underway. Full construction is slated for the late 2020s, with commissioning of the first unit expected by 2036.
These enormous infrastructure and energy projects, alongside ongoing EU-funded road and rail upgrades, are injecting capital into the economy and will stimulate related industries for the next decade. For M&A in Poland, this means opportunities in construction, engineering services, materials, transportation, and energy-sector suppliers as Poland modernizes its infrastructure.
Offshoring, Outsourcing and Cost Competitiveness
Despite rising wages in recent years, Poland remains cost-competitive as an offshoring and outsourcing destination. Manufacturing and business process outsourcing in Poland still offer significantly lower labor costs than Western Europe or the US, while maintaining a skilled workforce.
Admittedly, the era of “cheap Poland” is fading, wages have been growing around 8-10% annually, but the economic calculus often still favors Poland for many operations, especially given productivity gains and proximity to key markets.
As labor costs increase, companies are moving up the value chain: instead of pure call centers or basic assembly, Poland is now attracting higher-value R&D centers, IT and shared services, and complex manufacturing.
Investors should note that while the easy labor arbitrage of 10-15 years ago is narrower, Poland’s combination of moderate costs, improving infrastructure, and stable business environment continues to make it an attractive base for European operations. The ongoing trend of “nearshoring”, relocating supply chains closer to Europe, also plays to M&A in Poland’s benefit, especially in manufacturing and tech services.
Strong Technology, Know-How and Educated Population
Poland boasts a highly educated talent pool, particularly in engineering and computer science, which is increasingly propelling its technology sector onto the global stage. In the burgeoning field of AI, for example, Polish-founded startups have made headlines.
ElevenLabs, an AI voice synthesis company started by two Poles in 2022, recently raised funding at a valuation of over $3.3 billion, making it one of Europe’s most valuable generative AI startups.
Another success story is Neptune.ai, a Polish machine-learning tooling startup, which was acquired by OpenAI in late 2025 in a deal reportedly worth around $400 million.
Beyond AI, Poland’s tech ecosystem is flourishing in software development, fintech, gaming, bolstered by a steady output of STEM graduates from Polish universities. Global tech firms have noticed: Google, Microsoft, Amazon and others have opened large R&D offices or cloud regions in Poland in recent years.
From the M&A perspective, Poland is a prime hunting ground for tech acquisitions, whether product companies or IT services, for both strategic and financial investors. It comes from the strong technical know-how and comparatively lower valuations than in Silicon Valley. In short, Poland is an excellent destination for technological talent and innovation, and tech companies (product- or services-oriented alike) are finding fertile ground here.
Risks
Unfavorable Longer-Term Demographic Trends
Looking beyond the current growth story, investors must weigh Poland’s challenging demographics. The country enjoyed a baby boom in the 1980s (just before the fall of communism), which means today Poland has a very large cohort of people in their 40s, at the peak of their productivity and innovative capacity.
As a result, over 64% of Poland’s population is of working age (15-64). However, the longer-term trend is less favorable: Poland’s fertility rate in 2024 fell to only 1.1 children per woman, one of the lowest in Europe (and indeed the world). With far too few births to replace the aging population, the United Nations projects a steep decline ahead. Poland’s population, roughly 37-38 million today, is forecast to shrink to around 33 million by 2060 and could drop under 20 million by the end of the century if current trends persist.
Correspondingly, the working-age cohort will contract dramatically: by 2060 it may be barely half of the total population. While immigration to Poland has increased (especially with inflows from Ukraine and Belarus), net migration is still very low. It is roughly 0.2 per 1,000 population in recent year, sand nowhere near enough to offset the natural population decline.
For financial investors with a 5-10 year horizon, these long-run demographics may not bite immediately. But strategic buyers thinking 15-20 years out should consider the implications. Sectors that rely on a growing base of young consumers or a large middle class, e.g. mass-market retail, FMCG, or any business targeting rural populations (where depopulation is acute), face a structural headwind.
An aging society also means shifts in spending patterns: we expect increased demand in healthcare, pharmaceuticals, medical services and assisted living, while categories geared to youth or families could stagnate.
Indeed, several PE firms are already active in roll-ups of medical and veterinary clinics, diagnostic labs, aiming to capitalize on rising healthcare needs in an aging Poland. Investors should factor demographic risks vs. opportunities into their Poland strategy: a shrinking labor force could mean wage pressures and talent shortages in some industries, but it also opens chances to invest in automation, robotics, and sectors like healthcare and silver economy products that will see sustained demand.
Lower Scale of Businesses
Another consideration for international buyers is the smaller scale of Polish businesses relative to Western markets. Lower costs of doing business in Poland often go hand-in-hand with lower revenues per employee. In other words, many private companies here operate on thinner margins or smaller topline per headcount than their US or UK counterparts.
For example, a 20-person software firm in the U.S. or UK might generate $5 million in annual revenue, whereas a similar 20-person firm in Poland might only generate $2 million. This doesn’t imply the Polish firm is less efficient; rather, it reflects lower pricing and wages.
For major investors, however, it means that to achieve the same absolute revenue or EBITDA through a Polish platform, you may need a larger headcount or multiple acquisitions. We often counsel investors on calibrating their market-entry strategy accordingly – sometimes a “buy-and-build” approach is necessary to reach critical mass.
The good news is that Poland offers a large pool of profitable mid-sized targets, but the market in certain niches may still be fragmented to the point where a roll-up is needed to justify the effort. Before committing significant capital, it’s wise to map the market and assess whether a consolidation play is feasible (or if the addressable market size is simply too small).
Our team has deep experience in this regard: we have access to databases of Polish company financials and can quickly help investors size the market and identify clusters of targets. We often provide an early market-mapping exercise so that investors understand whether a given industry in Poland can support their growth ambitions.
In some cases, there may be plenty of “hidden champions” to acquire and consolidate; in others, the entire sector might not be large enough to warrant a platform investment. Conducting this analysis upfront can save time and transaction costs, ensuring that your Poland M&A strategy is built on realistic expectations of scale and synergy potential.
