AI Valuation Multiples 2024

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SaaS valuation multiples: 2015-2024

Then came the release of ChatGPT in 2022, which proved to be a turning point for generative AI startups. Venture capitalists, corporations as well as founders rushed into generative AI startups as the applications of the technology became more obvious. Even though ChatGPT has been a massive catalyst for AI investment, the number of funding rounds stayed at around 6,000 a year, showing that the overall fundraising environment is often more important than specific triggers.

As of February 2024, 692 AI company funding rounds have been recorded. At the current pace, that would not translate to a record-breaking year for AI startups, yet whether AI funding activity potentially picks up in the year’s second half remains to be seen.

Deal volumes by funding stage: AI’s formative era

Right now, investors are still getting accustomed to the rising interest in new startups focused on applications of Artificial Intelligence.

Our analysis found that Seed deals constituted 35% of the total AI fundraising deals between 2015 and 2024. This proves that the AI ecosystem is in its formative era with many newer startups trying to hop on to the scene, raise seed stage from venture capital investors, and work towards a use-case solution of artificial intelligence.

When we look holistically at Pre-Seed, Seed, and Series A rounds, they make up 60% of fundraising for AI companies in the same period.

However, the trajectory of fundraising rounds evolves significantly as a sector progresses from its nascent stages to robust growth and eventual maturity. In the formative years, seed and pre-seed rounds often take precedence as entrepreneurs seek initial capital to validate concepts and develop prototypes.

As the industry gains traction and demonstrates potential, the focus shifts towards more substantial investments characterized by Series A and B rounds aimed at scaling operations and expanding market reach. These rounds typically attract larger institutional investors and PE firms seeking to capitalize on the sector’s growth prospects.

Total capital raised in AI: Multi-billion rounds dominate

In the wake of ChatGPT’s breakthrough, corporate giants swiftly recognized the transformative potential of AI and embarked on a land grab in the LLM segment. While thousands of smaller AI startups were raising seed funding, tech giants like Microsoft or Amazon invested billions to gain a dominant market position.

That is why the bulk of the value of the capital raised in later-stage and corporate rounds that dwarfed anything that the markets have previously seen. Funding rounds by OpenAI, Anthropic and Inflection are among some of the largest rounds in history:

• $10 billion investment in ChatGPT’s parent company OpenAI by Microsoft
• $4 billion investment in Anthropic by Amazon
• $2 billion investment in Anthropic by Google
• $1.3 billion investment in InflectionAI by NVIDIA, Microsoft, and others

Total money invested in AI peaked in 2021 at $93 billion. There were 6,800 deals in 2021, out of which 6 deals were of $1 billion+ size. Some of the biggest deals were:

• $7 billion combined investment into Cruise by GM Financial and Microsoft
• $2 billion investment in Databricks by a consortium of financial investors

Top investors in AI: Jumping on the bandwagon

With the sudden shift of investors’ interest in AI, especially given the decline of many other investing themes, such as crypto or fintech, venture capital investors of all sizes jumped on the AI bandwagon. Naturally, the USA emerged as the largest funding source for upcoming AI startups. The likes of Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia, and Tiger Global were leading the biggest rounds.

At the same time, the investor universe is not limited to the bigwigs of the VC industry. Across the ~51,000 funding rounds, more than 200 funds were invested in 10 or more AI companies, suggesting a vast investor landscape. The investor locations were also not limited to the USA, but many were from emerging tech hubs, such as London, Berlin, or Paris.

We see three main types of investors that are currently active in the AI space – Financial, Strategic, and Sovereign.

In the wake of AI’s breakthroughs, corporate giants swiftly recognized the transformative potential of AI and started to partner with AI companies with proven potential (such as Microsoft’s $10 billion investment into OpenAI) or embarked on internal AI initiatives.

A not-so-common approach was seen when, in March 2024, Microsoft decided to form a long-term partnership with the French AI company MistralAI instead of wholly acquiring the technology or the company. This hints at a new playbook that larger companies may deploy to take the lead in the AI race.

Companies across sectors, from tech titans to traditional enterprises, sought to harness AI to streamline operations, enhance decision-making processes, and unlock new revenue streams. Some of the largest investors and acquirers include Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Volkswagen, and Intel.

Median deal sizes in AI: 3x over the 7 years

The median round sizes dipped in the recent years as venture capitalists readjusted their investment appetite following 2021 rush. We expect the median deal sizes to stay largely unchanged, as the multi-billion investment rounds will not translate into bread-and-butter AI companies.

As of the most recent data in 2023, we see that:

• AI startup raising pre-seed would have a median deal size of $100k
• AI startup raising seed capital would have a median deal size of $740k
• AI startup raising Series A capital would have a median deal size $7M
• AI startup raising Series B capital would have a median deal size of $18M
• AI startup raising Series C capital would have a median deal size of $28M

AI startup valuations – by funding rounds

Reflecting the growing interest in AI and the increasing capital requirements to train or use AI, both the median funding round sizes as well as median valuations have been growing over the years.

The median AI pre-money valuations as of 2023 were:

• AI startup raising pre-seed capital would have a median $3.5M valuation
• AI startup raising seed capital would have a median $7.0M valuation
• AI startup raising Series A capital would have a median $63M valuation
• AI startup raising Series B capital would have a median $150.0M valuation
• AI startup raising Series C capital would have a median $450.0M valuation

Pre-money valuation is the total equity value of a company before receiving cash from a funding round. With a larger valuation and a similar amount of money raised founders are giving away less equity in the company.

Now that we have seen the trend of AI startup valuations above, a natural question may arise: How to value an AI company?

Well, valuing a startup is notoriously difficult, so many investors rely on rule of thumb to put in a number in a term sheet. Earlier-stage investors, such as Techstars or YCombinator have their own guidelines.

Valuation is also commonly a result of negotiations and investor interest. Many interested investors allow the founders to push up the valuation.

AI valuation multiples: 25x revenue and above

As AI is a relatively new, as well as capital-intensive segment of technology, there majority of the deals are concentrated in capital raisings rather than traditional exits. Naturally, the available AI valuation multiples are primarily coming from larger capital raises.

Below we collected a set of revenue multiples from large capital raising transactions and M&A deals. The median revenue multiple for AI companies stood at 25.8x.

It’s important to note the valuation multiples are much higher in capital raising transactions than in 100% sales. The sample also includes the largest and most successful companies, so founders looking to sell their AI startups should take this data with a grain of salt. The valuation multiple will likely be significantly lower in the sale offer you receive.

World of AI – 2024 and beyond

The outlook as a whole remains incredibly promising for AI advancements. There is an increasing conviction among financial and strategic investors that the upcoming AI sector will unleash a wave of innovation, productivity, and wealth-creation opportunities. It remains to be seen how AI Startup valuations fare in 12-18 months from now. The road ahead for AI will be characterized by:

• Intersection of AI with IoT, robotics, and machine learning: This is a key trend that we envision in the future that will drive efficiency, productivity, cost savings, and new revenue streams for businesses
• Ethical considerations: Like with any new technology, ethical challenges are always present and need to be resolved through open dialogue, accountability, and transparency.

This is our first report of its kind on Artificial Intelligence capital raises and valuations, and we hope to update it regularly with new data and insights as they become available.