IT Services Valuations in 2026: Webinar Recap

On May 12, 2026, we hosted a live webinar titled "IT Services Valuations in 2026."

Shaheer Ansari
Published May 13, 2026 · 28 min read · Connect on LinkedIn

On May 12, 2026, we hosted a live webinar titled “IT Services Valuations in 2026.” The webinar was presented by Marcin Majewski, Managing Director, and Filip Drazdou, M&A Director at Aventis Advisors.

You can now watch the full webinar replay below. If you would like to download the presentation material used during the session, you can easily do so by clicking the download report button on the left (if you are using a computer) or by scrolling at the very end (if you’re using a phone).

Below is the full transcript of the discussion, edited and paraphrased for clarity, flow, and brevity.

OpenAI and Anthropic Move Into IT Services

Marcin Majewski:

Welcome to our webinar on IT services valuations in 2026. Our last session on this topic was around half a year ago, and a lot has happened since, so we thought it was time to refresh our findings and share what we’ve seen. I’m joined as usual by Filip Drazdou, M&A Director at Aventis Advisors. Our goal today is to share what we’ve learned over the past few months so you can make better decisions in your business and in your investments.

Filip Drazdou:

We’ll walk through the agenda quickly. We’ll start with the public market, because a lot has happened with the stock prices of software companies. Everyone has been talking about the SaaS-pocalypse, and yet NVIDIA is at an all-time high, so we wanted to throw IT services into the mix and see where we are. Then we’ll move to private markets, look at what’s happening with valuations in private transactions, walk through trends we’re seeing among companies being bought and sold, and finish with how to position yourself as an AI-led IT services company, because that’s what most people are looking for right now.

A slide titled “News of the day: When your tech vendor becomes your competitor” shows details of OpenAI’s acquisition of an AI consulting firm called Tomoro, with a summary table on the right and an OpenAI announcement on the left.

We wanted to start with the news of the day. Just yesterday, OpenAI finally launched its AI implementation company. They’ve been talking about it for a while, that they want to set up a separate company together with leading private equity funds and leading consultants like McKinsey and Bain to actually implement AI in the enterprise. It’s not easy, and they felt it would be a good move to have their own systems integrator. Yesterday, they announced their acquisition of Tomorrow AI, an AI consultancy out of London, 150 people, doing quite interesting work for Fortune 500 enterprises. That’s the first acquisition from OpenAI.

We’re going to see more of this. There will be more and more interest in companies that are actually doing AI implementation, and maybe a bit less interest in traditional services. I think it’s a great opportunity for anyone who is involved in AI services or has a significant revenue stream from AI. You can be acquired by a company like that. We’ll see how it develops, whether it becomes a roll-up where they buy companies across the globe, or whether they pursue greenfield investments. Either way, it’s a major development, and Marcin, OpenAI isn’t the only one doing this, right?

Marcin Majewski:

Correct. That news is actually already old, because it’s one week old. Anthropic did exactly the same, but backed by the biggest names in private equity: Blackstone, Hellman & Friedman, Goldman Sachs, and a bunch of other private equity firms. They led the way, and OpenAI was a very quick follower; it only took them a week to launch a similar operation.

A slide titled Old news: When your tech vendor becomes your competitor discusses Anthropic AI services, noting competitors, key investors, major customers, and the rationale for deploying Claude partners.

This is remarkable, how fast it’s moving, and we’re actually very curious how it will affect the industry. Are they coming to eat the lunch of IT services companies? That’s why we wanted to take a poll to get the pulse from the audience: how do you feel about the long-term impact of AI and the hyperscalers on the IT services business? Does it help and accelerate growth, or do they capture the market and the ecosystems they are challenging?

Filip Drazdou:

We had a great turnout in voting. The results: 55% net positive, 24% net negative, 21% not sure.

Marcin Majewski:

Net positive, that’s very good. Then it’s a buying opportunity, because as we’ll see on the next slide, the market is saying something different.

How IT Services Are Performing in Public Markets

Filip Drazdou:

As always, we look at our Aventis IT Services Index, which tracks 187 companies from across the globe, equal weighted, against NASDAQ. The last time we covered IT services in our webinar was mid to late 2025, when we were at all-time highs around 800 points. We saw a slow decline of IT services after 2022, then slower growth, then back to all-time highs together with NASDAQ.

Line graph comparing Aventis IT Services Index and NASDAQ 100 from 2015 to mid-2026, showing both indices rising until 2022, then declining. Green bull and red bear icons indicate bullish and bearish trends, respectively.

What we are seeing now is that the real difference is in the most recent couple of months. NASDAQ is going up, mostly led by NVIDIA and the chip companies, while IT services companies are going down across the board. This is a global index, so they are going down across the globe, and more so in the US. When we checked on some of the biggest US-listed companies, like EPAM, Globant, Endava and the like, their share prices have dropped quite dramatically over the past couple of months.

Marcin Majewski:

So are we bullish or bearish, Filip? Or do we have diverging opinions?

Filip Drazdou:

There are arguments for both cases. Which ones do you want to make first?

Marcin Majewski:

I’m bullish, especially after our call earlier today, which reinforces my intuition that there is much more work to be done with AI. It’s a big boost for productivity, so it gives big leverage to IT services companies, and someone has to implement all these projects that AI facilitates. In the long run, I think it leads to expansion and growth in revenue. And definitely, relative to SaaS, IT services companies are in a much better position. They can adapt much more easily to changes in the ecosystem.

Filip Drazdou:

But do you think bullish for the incumbents as well, for IBM and the like?

Marcin Majewski:

I think they will adapt and learn to live with AI. I’m quite sure. Not everyone. There might be some reshuffling, and we see small, nimble, AI-native IT services companies emerging. They operate very differently. But as they scale, founders exit them; they sell to Accenture, they sell to Kyndryl, they sell to large systems integrators. The big incumbents will acquire this capacity. It’s just a matter of time. They are big financial engines that have gone through so many shifts in technology, and I think they will be able to handle this one as well.

But in the short term, there is clearly negative sentiment toward these companies. We see it in the stock market, and we see it in private deals (maybe less so, but still). So short-term bearish; I think we have some downside risk, maybe another 20%. Long term, definitely bullish.

Filip Drazdou:

I think those companies are now much more attractively priced. Part of this movement is just going back to more realistic valuations. When I see those names trading at 6, 7, 8 times EBITDA, that’s completely different from the COVID period.

The pricing model is also breaking down a bit for a lot of these IT services companies, and they are struggling to reinvent themselves. They need to move to a model where you pay for performance and for results, not for the time billed. That may put pressure on revenue growth, and AI and the use of tokens may put pressure on margin, because that’s becoming more expensive as developers use it. The model has to change, so I would be a bit more skeptical on the incumbents and how quickly they can turn around. These are companies with tens of thousands of staff across the globe and processes that are very well established. They may need to be much more nimble, much more agile.

Why IT Services Multiples Are Repricing

Filip Drazdou:

Moving on to what happened this year. Here we plotted NASDAQ 100, our Aventis AI Index (which is mostly semiconductors, data centers, energy providers, the whole AI supply chain), and the IT Services Index. February 26 is around when Claude Code came along, so I think this is the major reason for the underperformance of the IT Services Index. The market took a very dim view of those companies, and we’re seeing minus 19% performance of the IT Services Index versus plus 10% for NASDAQ 100.

A line graph compares Aventis IT Services Index, NASDAQ 100, and Aventis AI Index from January to May 2026. The IT index and NASDAQ rise by about 10% and 9%, whilst the AI index falls by 19%.

A lot of this is just spending shifting further toward hardware, tokens, data centers, and so on. We heard stories that Anthropic went from $3 billion to $30 billion ARR, just overnight, or over a couple of weeks. A lot of spending is shifting from where it could have gone, which is IT services, to LLM and model developers. Even if it comes through an IT services company, IT services is now buying tokens from the model providers to deliver the service to the client. So a piece of every project flows through to the model layer.

Marcin Majewski:

On the EV/EBITDA multiple chart, we see the repricing that happened at the beginning of this year. Why such a sudden drop, from around 10 to 8? That’s because of our cycle of updating the data. The backdrop is that EBITDA volume is actually growing, but the market is not buying it, is not believing in the growth story. We are on the opposite end; we believe it’s going to grow.

Two line graphs show trends from 2015 to 2026: Median EV/EBITDA Multiple for IT Services companies declines to 8.9x, and Median quarterly EBITDA margin decreases to 10.4%, a 10% drop. Source: S&P Capital as at May 2024.

The multiple is still moving in the same band, essentially between 8 and 12. It looks fairly cheap, so it’s a great time to buy, probably. Maybe not such a good time to sell, but you never know how long it will stay in this fairly low range. Will it bounce back next quarter, or will it take two years to recover? From a cyclical point of view, probably not the best time to exit IT services companies, unless they’re in the AI space and you can sell to OpenAI. But it’s a great time for acquirers to pick up discounted assets.

There’s no apparent reason in the fundamentals for the repricing. Margins are 10 percentage points lower than the COVID peaks, but we had a very good year in 2025 when profitability recovered, so we don’t really see a reason in the fundamentals for the repricing.

A line chart titled Stable topline, shaky sentiment shows median quarterly year-on-year revenue growth for the IT services industry from 2015 to Q4 2025, peaking at over 20% after COVID, then stabilising near 6%.

Filip Drazdou:

They’re repriced on long-term value. The margins are the same, the growth rate is the same, around 5 to 6%. Profitability is the same, EBITDA margin at 10%, super stable over the past couple of years. So what the market is saying is that, yes, for now it’s 6% growth and 10% margin, but in the future one of those is going to be lower. We don’t know exactly which one, but earnings will compress through either lower revenue growth or lower margins.

Marcin Majewski:

Or it’s the perceived risk that increased, that you cannot bet on the incumbents anymore, that investors are not that confident about their survival. That could also be the case.

Regional Differences in IT Services Valuations

Filip Drazdou:

We’ve been looking at IT services valuations by region for quite a long time. When we first did this webinar, the green line for India was above 20 times EBITDA at the peak. We were discussing what the reason for that was, and we weren’t finding any. Now it’s all coming back to earth. Indian companies are now at 13.2 times EBITDA, and I think they’re going to converge to where the other regions are. Europe is at 9.2, North America at 8.1, so roughly an 8 to 9 times EBITDA level. Indian companies are likely to come down to that range.

A line graph shows median EV/EBITDA multiples by region from 2015 to 2026, with Indian IT peaking sharply around 2022 then declining steeply, whilst Europe, North America, and Rest of the World lines remain steadier.

There are also a lot of arguments that services outsourced to India are first to go, that they’ll be automated by AI, because they tend to be the most basic type of IT services. We’ll see how that plays out. I’ve seen a chart, for example, that the number of call center workers in the Philippines keeps growing, just because more and more companies can afford this kind of service thanks to AI. So we may see something similar in IT services outsourcing to India, where the fundamentals stay strong even as the technology changes.

With this kind of decline, it’s actually difficult to read what the reason is. If Indian companies were valued at two times the rest of the world and are now coming down, it may just be convergence to global valuations and have nothing to do with AI.

Marcin Majewski:

I agree, it looks like convergence, maybe some idiosyncratic risk for India. People think they can replace humans with agents. I think they’ll just team up. We’ll have human-and-agent teams that will be way more powerful and able to achieve more, and you’ll find more jobs for humans to work with agents, just because they are so much more productive.

We’re quite advanced in deploying AI in our own company, and as much as we try, it’s useless without a human in the loop. With LLMs, I don’t think it’s ever happening that they will be able to run on their own. Structurally, the technology is too limited, too crude.

Filip Drazdou:

You need people to connect it, integrate it, connect APIs, get systems to talk to each other. You can have a very small standalone use case, but it still needs a lot of setup.

IT Services M&A: Private Market Valuations

Filip Drazdou:

Let’s move on to private markets. Historically, private market valuations have been quite stable. Here we look at a sample of IT services transactions, both at EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA multiples. EV/Revenue has a significantly larger sample; EV/EBITDA is a smaller sample, so we’re looking at data relaxed from 2025.

Two line graphs compare median EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA multiples for IT Services M&A deals from 2016 to 2023, showing yearly variation and notable peaks in 2021. Data includes median, 1st and 3rd quartiles.

We’re seeing a similar type of development. There is a decline in multiples happening, but over the past 10 years, multiples have oscillated around 9 to 11 times EBITDA. The median deal size here is $40 million, so we’re talking about companies with around $4 million of EBITDA. Of course, as the company size grows, the multiple grows, and the other way around; if you go to the lower end of revenue or EBITDA, the multiples are a bit smaller.

The totals across the years: median EV/EBITDA 10.3, EV/Revenue 1.3, so the margin of these companies is around 10%, which adds up to what we have. EV/EBIT is 15.6, but EBIT isn’t used too much in IT services. EV/EBITDA at 10 times is what we’re seeing.

A table displays statistics on IT services M&A deal valuation multiples over 10 years, showing EV/Revenue, EV/EBITDA, and EV/EBIT by sample size and by 1st quartile, median, and 3rd quartile values.

Marcin Majewski:

Can we go back to the previous slide? The range of outcomes is widening since 2021, and we’re in a downward trend from 2021. So if someone is considering a sale in the next one, two, three years, what would be your advice, Filip? Should they wait? How should they time it?

Filip Drazdou:

Looking at this, the data comes with a bit of a delay. The peak in 2021 was good, 2022 and 2023 were also good, but now, with the market going down, this will feed into private market valuations. Deals will be repriced. If someone started a process in February, I would expect some of those transactions to be repriced based on what we’ve seen.

Marcin Majewski:

We’ve seen that already. So 2026, it’s going to be a drop, probably, because it follows the trend in the stock market with a lag. When is a good time to sell? 2027, 2028, unless there’s a big crisis?

Filip Drazdou:

Once the market picks back up and the decline stops. Right now, the gap between the overall market and IT services is quite large.

Marcin Majewski:

The new Fed chairman is also a factor. We don’t know how he will behave, and that will drive a lot of the price action in the market. So it’s important to wait for that. To me, today is the time to consolidate and reinvent the business. Unless there’s a reason to sell, probably better to give it a while and see where the market heads. Later we’ll talk about what you can do to make your business AI-ready.

Just to clarify on the chart: EBITDA here is as reported. We don’t adjust in any way.

Filip Drazdou:

Usually, because the deal sizes are larger here, the formula for EBITDA doesn’t have a very big effect.

Filip Drazdou:

On the regional split of IT services M&A valuations, we’ve been tracking this for quite some time, and there isn’t a lot of movement. North America has slightly better valuations than Europe. Asia is at very good valuations, mostly due to fast growth and mostly due to India. We’ve seen what’s happening in public markets in India, and that usually feeds into private valuations as well. The red line for North America has been above Europe for most of the time, and India, part of Asia, has been above the rest of the time.

A table shows IT services valuation data by region, listing number of deals, median size in USD, and median EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA multiples for Europe, Asia, North America, and Other regions, plus totals.

Marcin Majewski:

Very interesting, this has flipped here. The US trades now lower than Europe. We didn’t actually notice this. That’s a very interesting development, and contrary to what we see in the long-term private data. That’s a big one.

Where the AI Premium Is in IT Services

Marcin Majewski:

Here we take a look at where the market is heading, where the value is, and what companies are facing an existential crisis and should be reading our material on reinventing themselves or selling at a discount.

The premiums we see are in areas that are most affected by AI. One segment is cybersecurity, and managed cybersecurity service providers. These companies benefit from the fact that it’s easier and cheaper to deploy AI-led cyber attacks and exploit bugs in software. So we see them growing very fast, and we see very good interest from buyers.

Chart comparing trends in IT Services M&A. The left column lists Commanding Premiums such as cyber security, cloud, and AI integration. The right column lists Facing Compression items like legacy systems and broad outsourcing.

Second is AI implementation: companies that understand how to sell AI projects and have credibility. There’s a lot of demand for these companies, because legacy players need to either build these competencies in-house (which isn’t easy, because it’s a different philosophy of delivering services) or just buy them. They have decided to buy a lot of the time, to cut the time to market.

And lastly, we still see good demand for vertical specialists, companies that know one particular industry. Generalist scale players are no longer that interesting; the interesting ones are those that can tell the AI what it should do, because they know a particular industry, like healthcare, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, or insurance. These companies are much more likely to stay relevant, because they add more than just coding skills, which in clients’ eyes can be replaced by AI. So they have better pricing power. Filip, any comment on this?

Filip Drazdou:

I’d say data. Everything related to data is also commanding premiums, so partners of Databricks, Snowflake, all those ecosystems. There’s an argument to be made that to get good results from AI, you need very, very clean data, and not many companies have that. It’s scattered in different Excel databases and so on, so companies that help with that are part of the supply chain of AI.

The vertical specialist piece is similar to what we discussed in software: someone who knows a vertical software very well is not so easy to replace with AI. I think the same applies here. If you can consult very well for a particular industry, you become a partner in the AI implementation, rather than a person to replace.

Marcin Majewski:

These companies tend to be easier to sell, shorter time to sell, and the valuations are 7 to 14 times EBITDA if they’re in the average growth rate of 10 to 20%. That’s probably what we can expect.

Where IT Services Valuations Are Compressing

Marcin Majewski:

On the compression side, we see a lot of industries being affected, and it’s not that new. A lot of it is due to a shift in sentiment rather than a change in fundamentals. There are just fewer buyers interested in these companies, because the arbitrage between public and private markets, and the arbitrage between large and small companies, isn’t there anymore.

Anything that touches legacy systems: not much demand. Undifferentiated outsourcing, body leasing, staffing: not doing great. There’s this perception that you can replace labor with AI, and to some extent you can. These companies, we don’t see a decline in profitability and revenues. They do okay. It’s just that the sentiment isn’t there anymore.

So these companies take longer to sell, and valuations are not that attractive: 5 to 8 times EBITDA for a regular business with similar KPIs to the green ones we just talked about. The performance is similar; it’s just that not much demand is there for them.

Filip Drazdou:

I agree. AI gives the most pressure to the time-and-material model, especially for staffing firms that don’t do project-based work too much. They’re under pressure because companies want to pay less, and developers are completing tasks much faster. That’s not very good for a time-and-material company. So there’s a bit of a conflict there.

Otherwise, you know, there are new companies popping up, new ecosystems. The performance for these incumbent compression categories is fine; it’s just that there are not a lot of buyers. So valuations are compressed, and if someone wants to or needs to exit, they just have to take a discount on the company value.

Marcin Majewski:

It’s all psychology now. Just a shift in psychology that we’re seeing. So far, AI hasn’t upended the industry. We haven’t seen that yet.

How to Position Your IT Services Company for an AI Premium

Marcin Majewski:

In the last slide, we wanted to share some ideas and observations on what differentiates companies that can leverage AI to work for them and build that into their valuation. We have a few ideas.

A presentation slide titled “Positioning your IT Services business for a premium exit in an AI-first market” with four strategies for AI integration, each described in a separate column with icons and bullet points under numbered headings.

One is to just start doing it and build a track record. Ultimately, if we understand investors’ psychology, they are looking for future earnings potential, and they are afraid about future earnings if AI takes over the market. You need to show that AI is your friend and that you’re riding the tailwinds. The best way is to start doing it and to have a lot of case studies to showcase that you know how to leverage AI to your advantage. So that’s number one.

Another thing companies are doing is marketing and refreshing their positioning. We see all kinds of companies just rebranding themselves. A lot of it is fake it till you make it, because there’s very little substance. But people just expect it. If you don’t market yourself as an AI company, it looks stale, and that can be a disadvantage in winning a new project, and also in selling a business.

Filip Drazdou:

And the AI doesn’t recommend you. AI reads what’s on your website and only recommends companies that have AI on their website for AI services.

Marcin Majewski:

Yeah, it’s kind of a loop, because now your clients are using AI to buy services. We see how easy it is to trick AI into recommending a product or a service. So there’s a new industry called GEO, generative engine optimization. SEO, search engine optimization, and now GEO are a new line of business for all kinds of marketing agencies. It’s good to pay attention to.

Next is delivery. This is the toughest one. It’s easy for us to talk about it, but redesigning your delivery is hard. We’re not that technical to tell founders how to run their business, but what we can say is that we’ve seen companies reorganize their teams and their workflows, and we’ve seen real results. There’s definitely potential here. How to go about it depends on each company. Some things are easier to automate, some things are harder. We try to use AI for everything in our business, and the speed at which we deliver stuff now is very hard to compare.

For IT services it’s similar. There is a lot of resistance, because IT professionals have for a long time been in an employer’s market. They were accustomed to being pampered. When you ask them to change the way they do things, it’s tough. We hear a lot of stories about how difficult it is to change habits. But the survival of the business depends on it, we’re quite sure, so it’s definitely worthwhile to put your energy into overcoming this resistance.

Last point: AI is a great tool for understanding performance. We’ve deployed AI to run all kinds of dashboards in our business and to understand what’s going on. With Claude as a partner for strategic decisions, for understanding the world around you (Claude or any other LLM you like), we see a lot of potential. All kinds of business plans, strategizing: this stuff is extremely powerful if you want to make shifts in the business.

Audience Q&A

Will the IT services market consolidate, and will pricing shift to outcome-based?

Marcin Majewski:

Consolidation is happening all the time, but it’s also an opportunity for newcomers to emerge now, and they have leverage with AI. So it’s a mixed bag. I’m sure the consolidation trend will continue, but I also think nimble, small companies can become quite powerful if they use AI. These trends oppose each other, so I don’t expect a lot of consolidation in the next few quarters. Once the technology matures, probably yes.

On pricing, for sure, it’s changing. We see a lot of companies implement shifts and embrace fixed-price work. If you’re good at using AI, you can deliver much more cheaply, and clients are used to paying a lot of money for projects. If you can hack that, you can keep the margin. So it’s definitely easier now to sell outcome-based.

What are the top 5 investment risks not covered in a SIM or by the sell side?

Filip Drazdou:

That’s a difficult question. Usually, I’d prefer everything be available in the CIM. I’d say the team, the key personnel in the company. You can have great résumés and great managers on paper or in the CIM, but during the deal process and during negotiations you will see much more closely what the strengths and weaknesses of the team are. I would invest in some in-person meetings if you’re serious about buying the company.

Marcin Majewski:

I agree, because the company might do well today, but there’s no certainty it will do well tomorrow. Their market might not be there anymore if Anthropic comes after it. If the team is smart, they will reinvent the business; they will find a way and they will leverage the technology to their advantage.

How do you see IT services firms tied to strong ecosystems like Microsoft, VMware, SAP, or Salesforce?

Marcin Majewski:

You can’t put them all in the same bucket, because even within the Microsoft ecosystem you have so many products with different life cycles. Azure has different dynamics than, for instance, Microsoft Dynamics. It all depends, and you have to evaluate ecosystem by ecosystem. That said, we’re strong believers in Microsoft. They treat their partners well. Other ecosystems, it all depends. With Microsoft, ever since we’ve been at it, there’s been demand.

Filip Drazdou:

Based on our chart, those firms will be roughly in between. It’s not the hottest thing on the market right now, and there’s been a lot of consolidation across all the ecosystems. But these are nice companies, they have enterprise customers, they have been in the market for a long time. So roughly in between, not the worst.

What about Indian IT services companies that deliver to Indian clients versus international ones?

Marcin Majewski:

We do see a discount for companies that are subcontractors and only work for Indian clients. That is true.

Filip Drazdou:

Some of those companies are highly profitable. If you manage to land clients in the US and deliver in India, that can be a great business.

Marcin Majewski:

Yes, especially if you have people in the US who can also do some selling and pre-sales.

Filip Drazdou:

The risk with these companies is that sometimes they have great profitability because they have no sales and marketing, so they have one client or a couple of clients dominating their revenue. That is a big risk, and it makes it very difficult to sell, or to put a high value on a company even if the fundamentals are very good.

Can you support the thesis that clean data is important for AI integration, beyond common sense? (from Michael)

Filip Drazdou:

From our experience, yes, but we are not a big data company. I can imagine a company that deals with millions of records where it’s even more important.

Marcin Majewski:

I was a panelist at a discussion, and that’s exactly what other people that are more versed in AI said, including bank IT managers. Data is the number one concern, because the AI is only as good as the data it gets.

How would you position an IT services firm that has a substantial part of revenue coming from sale of equipment? (from Jagintas)

Marcin Majewski:

That’s a tough one, we get that a lot. From our experience, these companies rarely sell successfully. Somehow they get very steeply discounted. We had this discussion earlier today that perhaps there’s some chance you can sell it as an AI company if you deliver components for AI. As hardware gets more scarce, it’s getting more valuable. If you can trade hardware well, there’s some extra margin you can make, and maybe now is the time to leverage that. But in general, right now, very tough. Unless you can justify that you’re dealing with GPUs (if you’re a great GPU dealer, then maybe there’s potential there).

Filip Drazdou:

For data, the data platforms are growing rapidly: Databricks, Snowflake, and all the others in the Gartner ecosystem. That would be the biggest point toward the fact that data is interesting, and the companies around them, all their ecosystems, are growing rather fast.

Won’t a large piece of revenue go to the foundational LLM model providers, leading to consolidation and fewer players among IT services companies?

Marcin Majewski:

That’s a brilliant question, and I think that’s the knee-jerk reaction. But I think it’s a very limited short-term effect. Eventually, you need people to operate these LLMs anyway. I don’t think it will ever be possible for them to run completely standalone. The technology will advance very fast, and in line with that, we will need humans to operate it.

My long-term view is that LLMs will be a commodity. Eventually, we will overcome all the supply chain issues. The only reason LLMs are expensive is the lack of energy and the lack of chips, the processing power. That’s not something humanity cannot overcome. Eventually, intelligence will be a utility, like electricity today. We just take it for granted that, in the developed world, we have water, electricity, heating, air conditioning, and intelligence on tap, essentially. I think that will lay the groundwork for IT companies flourishing. That’s my view.

So far, there have been a lot of waves of technology and a lot of hopes, but every technology eventually ends as a toaster. We had this discussion at the SaaS tournament; software is basically like a toaster today. But someone has to operate it, so I’m not that concerned.

How do you distinguish firms that deserve the AI premium from those just riding the narrative?

Filip Drazdou:

Everyone is riding the narrative a little bit, both ways. You need to have some substance, but you don’t need to have a lot. You can be riding the narrative. We were looking before the webinar at the company that OpenAI acquired, and we thought, well, that looks like a regular IT services company doing AI work. It’s new, it started very recently.

Marcin Majewski:

It’s not wild, actually. We’ve seen a pattern that these AI-native firms have shorter histories. They were designed with AI in mind from the ground up. For instance, we spoke to one company that has AI staffing for projects and time allocation. There are a lot of small details where AI can increase the margin by one, two percentage points, and these things compound. We see that the cohort of companies founded in the last few years has different characteristics from companies with 15, 20, 25 years of history. You can fight it to some extent, but to me, the DNA is different. The composition of the team is different, much more AI engineers, the projects are different.

Filip Drazdou:

The projects they do, I wouldn’t say it’s rocket science or foundational. It’s quite regular stuff that I think OpenAI will be investing in, which is just rolling AI out to everyone, be it a chatbot or some mini application.

Marcin Majewski:

The biggest difference I’ve seen is just the will to do it. People who have these companies I would call AI-native are passionate about AI, and they embrace it. In Western societies, 20 to 30% are optimistic about AI, and the rest of society is negative. The founders of these AI-native companies tend to belong to the optimistic group, and the ones that don’t fall into the second category, where they see more harm than benefit, or they’re just happy with the status quo and don’t want to change.

Filip Drazdou:

Those companies are also younger. It’s a bunch of people together who believe in AI. For someone who is running a company with 100,000 people across the globe, to turn it around and talk to everyone who maybe doesn’t think it’s going to work, who is skeptical about this and that, it’s a great challenge.

Marcin Majewski:

We’ve embraced AI totally. It’s not rocket science, but it’s just a shifted attitude. You have to learn to love AI, essentially.

If you are considering any type of M&A transaction in the IT services space, whether as a buyer, seller, or investor, we would encourage you to get in touch and speak with us directly. You can also explore our latest data on IT services valuation multiples and the Aventis IT Services Index for more context.

Shaheer Ansari

M&A Analyst

Shaheer joined Aventis Advisors in 2023. Previously, he worked for Goldman Sachs in the Credit Risk division. At Aventis, he supports the team with deal logistics, industry research, and business outreach and development. Shaheer enjoys learning about different business models and how strategic transactions can unlock their hidden potential. His varied experience in finance, media, and marketing enables him to view situations from a holistic and unique perspective. Outside of work, Shaheer enjoys exploring new cuisines, diving into non-fiction books, and creating content on social media.

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